Blog
Consumer inflation was greater, later and longer-lasting than figures suggest
Official inflation figures aren’t fully reflective of how energy bills impact some consumers based on when they use energy, and how they pay – we’ve crunched the numbers. By adjusting the CPI to account for real changes during the energy crisis, we show when the real peak was likely to be, why this varies by payment method, and how this lines up with recent debt trends.
Complaints are an increasing burden for non-domestic suppliers
Energy suppliers will need to offer enhanced complaints services to more than 200,000 small businesses under new Ofgem rules, BFY estimates. The Complaints Handling Standards (CHS) are expanding from December 2024 to cover both micro and small businesses, and as volume increases, some will need to adapt more than others, to build the required maturity for higher demand.
Choosing a tariff is complex – How can suppliers provide clarity?
As wholesale energy prices begin to fall, we’re starting to see murmurs of activity in what’s been a very low-activity switching market. And the pace looks set to increase following Ofgem’s April price cap, alongside the cessation of the market stabilisation charge – which previously discouraged suppliers from offering switching incentives.
Non-domestic Review: How should you prepare for change?
Non-domestic energy customers will be entitled to better customer service, more support resolving disputes, and greater transparency in a raft of new measures announced by Ofgem. And be aware – it wants action fast.
Most suppliers missed smart meter targets in 2023
Despite a steady increase in the market-wide % of smart meters, our analysis shows a wide variation in supplier performance, with some installing as little as half of their 2023 target. If suppliers continue to miss their annual targets, the government's goal of 74.5% coverage will not be reached by 2025.
Price Cap at £1,690 – Welcome relief, and more competitive tariffs?
Ofgem have announced that April’s Headline Price Cap will be £1,690 a fall of £238 (12%) compared to Q124, now standing at its lowest level since October 2021.
EV Adoption – Assessing the Energy market impact
The UK faces an ambitious timeline on its journey to Net Zero. Electric vehicles (EVs) will be a key driver of the transition, with 2035’s combustion engine ban set to shape not only the future of transportation, but also its adjacent markets – such as energy.
Energy Switching - A return to the Big Six?
A familiar pattern is emerging in the Energy market. Analysis of switching behaviour and market share shows a concentrated landscape, dominated by six large suppliers. This leads us to ask – have we returned to the market structure of the 2010s? And where does this go next?
Pre-payment debt has increased 100% to £1bn since Q4-21
Over the past two years we’ve seen pre-payment meter (PPM) debts continuing to rise, and as of Q3-2023 they now stand at £1bn The amount of customers using their PPM to repay a debt has risen by 40% (up 220k to 750k), and the average debt balances have also risen by 40% (up £400 to £1,300) - resulting in a 100% (up £500m to £1bn) increase in total pre-payment meter debt.
Could we see a Price Cap of £1,650 from April?
Based on the observation window so far, and a modelled view of the remaining window, we could see a Q2-24 Price Cap of ~£1,650 but a +/- £100 uncertainty. This gives a latest range of £1,550 - £1,760. By mid-January, we expect price uncertainty to be +/- £30 as the window closes out.
Total Ofgem reported debt is now at ~£3bn for Q3-2023
Total Ofgem reported debt is now at ~£3bn for Q3-2023, 50% (~£1bn) higher than Q3-2022. The primary driver is an £800m increase from accounts without No Arrangement in place to repay their debt.
Most customers worse off due to Jan 2024 Energy Price Cap
OFGEM have released their updated Energy Price Cap figures for Q1-24, and our modelling predicts this will make most customers worse off compared to Q1-23.
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