Energy Transition Insights
Insights
Realising a cleaner future for Energy & Utilities
The energy transition is fundamentally transforming the sector, creating both opportunities and challenges for suppliers and investors alike, as we shift towards cleaner, more sustainable energy sources. This transition demands substantial investments in infrastructure, technology, and innovation, while also managing the impact on customers and the workforce.
At BFY, we’re supporting suppliers and investors on this journey, leveraging expertise from BFY Carbon Strategies and our ESG offering, to optimise performance and capitalise on sustainability opportunities. Our insights address key questions, including:
- What are the key challenges and opportunities for suppliers and investors in the energy transition?
- How can companies balance regulatory pressures, technological advancements, and financial performance during this shift?
- What role will innovation and collaboration play in driving the success of the energy transition?
Insights
Energy Transition
Heat Network Regulation: The compliance countdown that will define future players
In January 2026, the UK heat network sector faces a huge transformation. As Ofgem takes regulatory control, suppliers face a stark choice: adapt quickly to thrive in a growing market or risk business failure under unprecedented scrutiny. With less than nine months to prepare, the clock is ticking - and many suppliers remain dangerously unprepared.
Domestic heat pump installs have trebled since 2022
Our analysis shows Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP) installations have seen a 3x increase in monthly installs since 2022. After a significant peak and drop when the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme closed in 2022, demand has recovered strongly and continued to grow.
Solar installs are up ~400% since the SEG Scheme began
At 15k installs per month, demand for domestic solar has grown by ~418% since 2020 - an annual growth rate of ~60%. The biggest incentive for installing solar panels is currently due to avoided import costs; but attractive SEG export tariffs now offered by suppliers increase the overall economic benefit to consumers.
What’s next for M&A in the Energy Transition?
Drawing from our recent advisory work on M&A opportunities in the energy transition, we’ve outlined key insights into the top investment opportunities and risks. As we enter a new financial year for many, we also highlight five strategic actions investors can take to maximise returns and unlock the full potential of the energy transition.
Quantifying the investment needed for cheaper bills under GB Energy
GB Energy's ambition to reduce bills and make Britain a 'clean energy superpower' is welcome news. But substantial private investment will be needed, if the potential savings pledged by Labour are to be realised. Using a very high-level business case, we've quantified the scale of investment that may be required.
Capitalising on new M&A opportunities with renewable energy
With Labour leading the drive towards clean energy, we're expecting to see an uplift in M&A activity related to renewables throughout the rest of 2024. Profits, economies of scale, and enhanced customer engagement are on offer to those who capitalise on the opportunities.
2030's EV targets will pose challenges - Is the market ready?
The UK's electric vehicle rollout is set to accelerate into 2030, and major changes are needed in our transport system to meet government targets. Are we ready for the challenges that come with a transition of this scale?
Average solar payback takes 14 years - optimising efficiency is key
Recovering install costs for domestic solar panels currently takes ~14 years, and customers can optimise efficiency to access the full potential of these systems, as covered here.
Heat Pump support increasing, with budget for 3.3k installs pm
Support for Heat Pumps is set to increase next year, with budget for up to 3.3k installations per month - doubling the current funded install rate.
Addressing the carbon reduction challenge in data utilisation
The technology and software sectors are a key driver of economic growth, attracting private equity and venture capital investment thanks to their scalability and high margins. Global tech spend is booming, forecasted to reach £3.6 trillion in 2024, so what’s the catch?
Heat pumps drive cheaper bills, but costs per kWh are higher
Our visual demonstrates the real cost of switching from gas boiler to heat pump.
Most suppliers missed smart meter targets in 2023
Despite a steady increase in the market-wide % of smart meters, our analysis shows a wide variation in supplier performance, with some installing as little as half of their 2023 target. If suppliers continue to miss their annual targets, the government's goal of 74.5% coverage will not be reached by 2025.
Energy Transition
Meet the Team
Ian Barker
Managing Partner
Ian shapes the BFY vision and inspires our team to bring it to life, while remaining central to complex client engagements in Strategy, Commercial, and Operations.
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Tom Bromwich
Director
Tom leads client engagements with a particular focus on commercial strategy, pricing, customer acquisition and retention.
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Angela Tooley
Head of Private Equity, Infrastructure & ESG
Angela specialises in the creation and implementation of growth strategies, as well as supporting clients through special situations, with M&A advisory, restructuring, and crisis management.
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Matt Turner-Tait
Senior Manager
Matt lead clients through key strategic projects exploring growth opportunities, business models, competitive advantage, and mergers & acquisitions.
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John de Bono
Consultant
John performs various analyses to provide BFY and their clients with unique insights, which help to inform decision making and inspire exceptional performance.
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