Latest Price Cap Projection

Ofgem's Price Cap expected to fall by ~£134 (7%) in July to ~£1,715 - the lowest level in a year, and welcome relief for customers on default tariffs.

We expect typical annual bills to settle around £1,680 over the next 12 months, which is £800 lower than their peak, but still 50% more than pre-crisis.

This reduction reflects recent wholesale price declines. While energy prices typically dip in summer due to reduced demand, the current market suggests prices could stay around existing levels through the winter, challenging typical seasonal patterns.

Ofgem is also expected to announce changes to the allowance for supplier operating costs - potential good news for consumers, but only likely to reduce bills by around £15 per year.

Recently, fixed deals have been undercutting the cap by £250–£300, reigniting customer switching activity to near pre-crisis levels. With July’s lower cap, that gap will reduce – but we still expect suppliers to offer meaningful savings.

The question is: How much headroom will suppliers have to undercut the cap?

Our latest projections for the next four Price Caps:

• 1st Jul to 30th Sep - £1,715
• 1st Oct to 31st Dec - £1,690
• 1st Jan to 31st Mar - £1,700
• 1st Apr to 31st Jun - £1,670 

These figures are rounded to the nearest £5 due to wholesale-driven uncertainty, and represent the average bill across Great Britain for a dual fuel customer with medium consumption, paying by direct debit. 

(Updated 16 May 2025)

BFY Group is one of the UK’s fastest-growing management consultancies, trusted by clients across the energy, utilities, and private equity sectors to deliver exceptional results.

Since our founding in 2004, we’ve been proud to remain an independent, privately owned firm based in Nottingham, supporting clients throughout the UK.

Working with 75% of the UK energy retail market and an expanding number of water suppliers, we help our clients to overcome their toughest challenges, realise new opportunities, and achieve lasting results.

We’re proud of the recognition we've received for our growth and impact. We’ve been named one of the UK’s Leading Management Consultants by the Financial Times, featured in The Sunday Times Hundred as one of the fastest-growing private companies, and earned multiple Best Workplaces awards. Ian Barker, our Managing Partner, also made The LDC Top 50 Most Ambitious Business Leaders list in 2024.