Latest Price Cap Projection
The expected rise in Ofgem's Price Cap to £1,815 will be unwelcome news for households already struggling with record energy debt, now at ~£4bn. While the cap is expected to remain stable throughout 2025, bills are still significantly higher than pre-crisis levels. As Ofgem explores potential interventions, switching to alternative tariffs remains the only way for customers to save - driving continued growth in switching activity.
Ian Barker
Managing Partner
PRICE CAP PROJECTION
Price Cap set to increase by 5% (~£80) to ~£1,815 in April 2025
Price Cap set to increase by 5% (~£80) to ~£1,815 in April 2025, and could stay at around ~£1,800 for the next 12 months.
We're expecting Ofgem to set the cap at ~£1,815, an increase of £77 based on wholesale prices so far, with 11 days left in the current observation window. Current wholesale prices also suggest the cap could stay around this level throughout the year.
While wholesale costs may ease later in 2025, rising operating and network costs could offset any reductions.
Affordability remains a major concern, with energy debt now reaching ~£4bn, as many customers struggle to pay their bills. Ofgem is exploring potential interventions, but until then, the best way for customers to save is by switching to alternative tariffs, a trend that may continue growing in 2025.
Our latest projections for the next four Price Caps:
- 1st Apr to 30th Jun - £1,815
- 1st Jul to 30th Sep - £1,805
- 1st Oct to 31st Dec - £1,795
- 1st Jan to 31st Mar - £1,805
These figures are rounded to the nearest £5 due to wholesale-driven uncertainty, and represent the average bill across Great Britain for a dual fuel customer with medium consumption, paying by direct debit.
(Updated 31 January 2025)
Price Cap Calculator
Estimate the impact on your Direct Debit levels
With our Price Cap Calculator, you can:
- Estimate the impact of the latest Price Cap on your Direct Debit levels
- Visualise your typical monthly bill shape over the next 12 months
- Compare fixed tariffs with the standard variable rate to explore potential savings
How it works:
- Find the average usage for your region and property size, or provide actual consumption (click 'Add a Fixed Price Tariff for Consumption' if desired)
- Enter your current debt or credit levels, and suggested Direct Debit amount
- See a forecast of your account balance over the next 24 months
Our Team
Market-leading energy expertise
Ian Barker
Managing Partner
Ian shapes the BFY vision and inspires our team to bring it to life, while remaining central to complex client engagements in Strategy, Commercial, and Operations.
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Tom Bromwich
Director
Tom leads client engagements with a particular focus on commercial strategy, pricing, customer acquisition and retention.
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Matt Turner
Senior Manager
Matt helps lead clients through key strategic projects exploring growth opportunities, business models, competitive advantage, and mergers & acquisitions.
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John de Bono
Consultant
John performs various analyses to provide BFY and their clients with unique insights, which help to inform decision making and inspire exceptional performance.
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About Us
About BFY Group
BFY Group is one of the UK’s fastest-growing management consultancies, trusted by clients across the energy, utilities, and private equity sectors to deliver exceptional results.
Since our founding in 2004, we’ve been proud to remain an independent, privately owned firm based in Nottingham, supporting clients throughout the UK.
Working with 75% of the UK energy retail market and an expanding number of water suppliers, we help our clients to overcome their toughest challenges, realise new opportunities, and achieve lasting results.
We’re proud of the recognition we've received for our growth and impact. We’ve been named one of the UK’s Leading Management Consultants by the Financial Times, featured in The Sunday Times Hundred as one of the fastest-growing private companies, and earned multiple Best Workplaces awards. Ian Barker, our Managing Partner, also made The LDC Top 50 Most Ambitious Business Leaders list in 2024.
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