March Energy Switching Likely Impacted By COVID-19
Updated: Dec 15, 2020
The good people at ElectraLink Ltd. recently released their view of 'Switches Started' for March 20, which they see as being down 7.5% on March 19.
Feeding this into the BFY’s energy switching forecast model, we're estimating that switching outturn will likely be down by 8%-10% against forecast (which is pretty significant given our model accuracy of +/- 3%).
What will this mean in the market?
April may actually see an uptick in switches, as we saw last year when the Default Price Cap increased in April 19.
While the April 20 Price Cap will see a reduction, it's likely that customers will become 'economically active' given the >£300 delta between the Price Cap and the cheapest tariffs in the market.
For growing challengers seeking scale, maintaining a 'steady state' simply isn't an option.
It's no longer about your market share - it's a question of whether you are gaining and retaining 'economically active' customers, and whether you're acquiring at the right rate (at the right price) relative to peers.
If you'd like to understand more on whether your customer acquisition and retention levels are leading or lagging, please drop me or one of the team a line.