We've seen a lot of discussion on how Gazprom owned/controlled gas storage sites have significantly lower inventory than seasonal norm, and our initial analysis shows that other site owners also have reduced volume.
Chart 1: Gas Storage Levels by Gas Storage Owner
The price rally in 2021 has come during a period of higher gas withdrawals, and lower gas injections. In both 2019 and 2020 gas in storage was higher going into and coming out of heating season than previous years.
Chart2: Gas Injections and Withdrawals by % of Capacity, by Country
We see that Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, and Ukraine all have a significant shortfall in gas storage. Austria and Netherlands will need to source additional inventories, as at typical run rates the model projects a negative storage position by 30 March.
Chart 3: Projected Gas Storage % Full at 30 March
Ian Barker
Ian shapes the BFY vision and inspires our team to bring it to life, while remaining central to complex client engagements in Strategy, Commercial, and Operations.
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