As we firm up the level of the S-22 Price Cap, any unhedged customers will create significant losses
While customers continue to be individually protected by the Price Cap, the volatility in the wholesale markets means that any unhedged customers are likely to be loss making even at the projected ~£2,005 level of the Summer-22 Price Cap.
The key thing to remember, is that suppliers cannot assume all customers will go onto the Price Cap.
We have Fixed Price Contracts ending each month, which would normally (in a functioning switching market) go onto another Fixed, switch, or roll onto the SVT at the Cap.
The events of the last few months mean these scenarios are now very difficult to model, and everyone is waiting with bated breath to see if/when the wholesale markets will reset.
Because of the annual consumption profile, the greatest impact is being seen in W-21, with any unhedged customers likely to be ~£1,100 loss making at a gross margin level for the quarter.
Because of the volatility, this changes daily - and I dare not look at the intra day position.