Press Office
Consumer inflation was greater, later and longer-lasting than figures suggest
Official inflation figures aren’t fully reflective of how energy bills impact some consumers based on when they use energy, and how they pay – we’ve crunched the numbers. By adjusting the CPI to account for real changes during the energy crisis, we show when the real peak was likely to be, why this varies by payment method, and how this lines up with recent debt trends.
Price Cap at £1,690 – Welcome relief, and more competitive tariffs?
Ofgem have announced that April’s Headline Price Cap will be £1,690 a fall of £238 (12%) compared to Q124, now standing at its lowest level since October 2021.
Pre-payment debt has increased 100% to £1bn since Q4-21
Over the past two years we’ve seen pre-payment meter (PPM) debts continuing to rise, and as of Q3-2023 they now stand at £1bn The amount of customers using their PPM to repay a debt has risen by 40% (up 220k to 750k), and the average debt balances have also risen by 40% (up £400 to £1,300) - resulting in a 100% (up £500m to £1bn) increase in total pre-payment meter debt.
Total Ofgem reported debt is now at ~£3bn for Q3-2023
Total Ofgem reported debt is now at ~£3bn for Q3-2023, 50% (~£1bn) higher than Q3-2022. The primary driver is an £800m increase from accounts without No Arrangement in place to repay their debt.
Most customers worse off due to Jan 2024 Energy Price Cap
OFGEM have released their updated Energy Price Cap figures for Q1-24, and our modelling predicts this will make most customers worse off compared to Q1-23.
Localised Energy Bills – How do they differ to the Price Cap?
We’re all familiar with the headline figure of the Energy Price Cap. Set most recently at £1,834 (following Ofgem's reduction in TDCV's), the number serves the useful purpose of providing an estimated average bill for customers. But rarely is there a discussion about the reality of this figure, and how it can’t possibly reflect the actual bills faced by households across the UK. In short, this is far from the case.
Customer indebtedness is set to worsen this winter
Customer indebtedness is growing at an unsustainable rate. And it’s projected to get worse as we head into winter. Analysis from our Market Insights supports this, highlighting three key points, which we’ve explored further in this blog.
The Energy Price Cap – A tragedy in four acts
The Energy Price Cap was introduced by Ofgem back in 2019, to ensure “that prices for people on default energy tariffs are fair and that they reflect the cost of energy". If the goal was to prevent loyalty premiums (which was the original stated intention), then we’d argue that a relative price cap would have been better.
An update on B2B Credit Risk
Business deaths have begun to decline from a peak position in late 2021 and early 2022 – the latent effect of the pandemic on business viability has potentially now passed. However, businesses continue to operate in challenging circumstances with economic pressures weighing heavily.
Market debt levels continue to rise with prices
Market debt levels have continued to rise as the the price cap rises - however we've also seen customers absorb a greater proportion of the price increases than expected. This isn't all good news - we're potentially starting to see a latent effect where customers are running out of options by which to cover the increased costs which will give rise to increased debt levels in Q4-23 / Q1-24.
Winter bills to rise as the Price Cap falls – Here’s why
Ofgem have announced the Price Cap for Oct-Dec 23 at £1,923 in line with BFY Group projections. Although this represents a decrease for the second consecutive quarter, we’re expecting to see customer bills moving in the opposite direction this winter, due to the removal of government support.
What is happening to customers bills each quarter?
With lots of talk of the Price Cap falling, what is happening to customers bills each quarter?
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