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Could we see a Price Cap of £1,650 from April?

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Energy Market Strategy and Commercial
Energy Market Strategy and Commercial

Price Cap at £1,690 – Welcome relief, and more competitive tariffs?

Ofgem have announced that April’s Headline Price Cap will be £1,690 a fall of £238 (12%) compared to Q124, now standing at its lowest level since October 2021.

Broken umbrella blown over onto the sand on a beach.
Energy Market Debt

Pre-payment debt has increased 100% to £1bn since Q4-21

Over the past two years we’ve seen pre-payment meter (PPM) debts continuing to rise, and as of Q3-2023 they now stand at £1bn The amount of customers using their PPM to repay a debt has risen by 40% (up 220k to 750k), and the average debt balances have also risen by 40% (up £400 to £1,300) - resulting in a 100% (up £500m to £1bn) increase in total pre-payment meter debt.

Broken umbrella blown over onto the sand on a beach.
Energy Market Debt

Total Ofgem reported debt is now at ~£3bn for Q3-2023

Total Ofgem reported debt is now at ~£3bn for Q3-2023, 50% (~£1bn) higher than Q3-2022. The primary driver is an £800m increase from accounts without No Arrangement in place to repay their debt.

Broken umbrella blown over onto the sand on a beach.
Energy Market Debt

Most customers worse off due to Jan 2024 Energy Price Cap

OFGEM have released their updated Energy Price Cap figures for Q1-24, and our modelling predicts this will make most customers worse off compared to Q1-23.

Energy Market

Localised Energy Bills – How do they differ to the Price Cap?

We’re all familiar with the headline figure of the Energy Price Cap. Set most recently at £1,834 (following Ofgem's reduction in TDCV's), the number serves the useful purpose of providing an estimated average bill for customers. But rarely is there a discussion about the reality of this figure, and how it can’t possibly reflect the actual bills faced by households across the UK. In short, this is far from the case.

Broken umbrella blown over onto the sand on a beach.
Debt Energy Market

Customer indebtedness is set to worsen this winter

Customer indebtedness is growing at an unsustainable rate. And it’s projected to get worse as we head into winter. Analysis from our Market Insights supports this, highlighting three key points, which we’ve explored further in this blog.

Energy Market Strategy and Commercial

The Energy Price Cap – A tragedy in four acts

The Energy Price Cap was introduced by Ofgem back in 2019, to ensure “that prices for people on default energy tariffs are fair and that they reflect the cost of energy". If the goal was to prevent loyalty premiums (which was the original stated intention), then we’d argue that a relative price cap would have been better.

Pair of wellington boots left in a puddle.
Strategy and Commercial Debt

An update on B2B Credit Risk

Business deaths have begun to decline from a peak position in late 2021 and early 2022 – the latent effect of the pandemic on business viability has potentially now passed. However, businesses continue to operate in challenging circumstances with economic pressures weighing heavily.

Broken umbrella blown over onto the sand on a beach.
Energy Market

Market debt levels continue to rise with prices

Market debt levels have continued to rise as the the price cap rises - however we've also seen customers absorb a greater proportion of the price increases than expected. This isn't all good news - we're potentially starting to see a latent effect where customers are running out of options by which to cover the increased costs which will give rise to increased debt levels in Q4-23 / Q1-24.

Energy Market

Winter bills to rise as the Price Cap falls – Here’s why

Ofgem have announced the Price Cap for Oct-Dec 23 at £1,923 in line with BFY Group projections. Although this represents a decrease for the second consecutive quarter, we’re expecting to see customer bills moving in the opposite direction this winter, due to the removal of government support.

Energy Market

What is happening to customers bills each quarter?

With lots of talk of the Price Cap falling, what is happening to customers bills each quarter?

Debt Energy Market

Dropping Prices - Rising Bills. Energy Price Cap Analysis.

Based on the latest update from Ofgem , the BFY Group team have modelled that prices will remain around £2,000 per year. The forecast £450 reduction in the headline rates won't be felt as a £450 saving customers pockets, this is because OFGEM have to articulate an annual value based on prices for a quarterly window.

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Kelly Payne, Director at BFY Group. Jonathan Paton, Senior Manager at BFY Group. Jon Vincent, Senior Manager at BFY Group.

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