Blog
Most suppliers missed smart meter targets in 2023
Despite a steady increase in the market-wide % of smart meters, our analysis shows a wide variation in supplier performance, with some installing as little as half of their 2023 target. If suppliers continue to miss their annual targets, the government's goal of 74.5% coverage will not be reached by 2025.
Price Cap at £1,690 – Welcome relief, and more competitive tariffs?
Ofgem have announced that April’s Headline Price Cap will be £1,690 a fall of £238 (12%) compared to Q124, now standing at its lowest level since October 2021.
EV Adoption – Assessing the Energy market impact
The UK faces an ambitious timeline on its journey to Net Zero. Electric vehicles (EVs) will be a key driver of the transition, with 2035’s combustion engine ban set to shape not only the future of transportation, but also its adjacent markets – such as energy.
Energy Switching - A return to the Big Six?
A familiar pattern is emerging in the Energy market. Analysis of switching behaviour and market share shows a concentrated landscape, dominated by six large suppliers. This leads us to ask – have we returned to the market structure of the 2010s? And where does this go next?
Pre-payment debt has increased 100% to £1bn since Q4-21
Over the past two years we’ve seen pre-payment meter (PPM) debts continuing to rise, and as of Q3-2023 they now stand at £1bn The amount of customers using their PPM to repay a debt has risen by 40% (up 220k to 750k), and the average debt balances have also risen by 40% (up £400 to £1,300) - resulting in a 100% (up £500m to £1bn) increase in total pre-payment meter debt.
Could we see a Price Cap of £1,650 from April?
Based on the observation window so far, and a modelled view of the remaining window, we could see a Q2-24 Price Cap of ~£1,650 but a +/- £100 uncertainty. This gives a latest range of £1,550 - £1,760. By mid-January, we expect price uncertainty to be +/- £30 as the window closes out.
Total Ofgem reported debt is now at ~£3bn for Q3-2023
Total Ofgem reported debt is now at ~£3bn for Q3-2023, 50% (~£1bn) higher than Q3-2022. The primary driver is an £800m increase from accounts without No Arrangement in place to repay their debt.
Most customers worse off due to Jan 2024 Energy Price Cap
OFGEM have released their updated Energy Price Cap figures for Q1-24, and our modelling predicts this will make most customers worse off compared to Q1-23.
Localised Energy Bills – How do they differ to the Price Cap?
We’re all familiar with the headline figure of the Energy Price Cap. Set most recently at £1,834 (following Ofgem's reduction in TDCV's), the number serves the useful purpose of providing an estimated average bill for customers. But rarely is there a discussion about the reality of this figure, and how it can’t possibly reflect the actual bills faced by households across the UK. In short, this is far from the case.
Service vs Sales – A dilemma for suppliers as the market reopens
With the prospect of a switching resurgence on the horizon, it will be interesting to see whether suppliers decide to chase the volume of new customers, or seek to prioritise customer retention. In short, many are likely to face a ‘Service vs Sales’ dilemma – bringing a degree of unpredictability to the market.
Customer indebtedness is set to worsen this winter
Customer indebtedness is growing at an unsustainable rate. And it’s projected to get worse as we head into winter. Analysis from our Market Insights supports this, highlighting three key points, which we’ve explored further in this blog.
The Energy Price Cap – A tragedy in four acts
The Energy Price Cap was introduced by Ofgem back in 2019, to ensure “that prices for people on default energy tariffs are fair and that they reflect the cost of energy". If the goal was to prevent loyalty premiums (which was the original stated intention), then we’d argue that a relative price cap would have been better.
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