• Ian Barker

The multi-billion cost of supplier failures

As price volatility continues and further supplier failures are expected, the energy industry is looking ahead to April with the hope that the market may start to resemble something a little more normal and the impact of this winter will ease. Whilst it may be some time before we have full certainty, some consequences are already known.


As some of you may have read in the Citizens Advice [1] release today, our analysis shows that the current cost of mutualisation from the recent SoLRs is over £2.6bn, or £94 per household.


These costs will be recovered through customer bills, further increasing the pressure on personal finances at a time when the current forecasts suggest that the price cap could increase by ~£600[2] in April. This view doesn’t include the eventual cost to consumers from Bulb’s Special Administration which will become clear over the next few months.


With season ahead prices back at mid-October levels and gas storage forecasted to hit the lowest ever levels across Europe [3], we're in for a challenging time unless some structural changes are made to the market.


Links:

[1] Citizens Advice - Market Meltdown: How regulatory failures landed us with a multi-billion pound bill - https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/about-us/our-work/policy/policy-research-topics/energy-policy-research-and-consultation-responses/energy-policy-research/market-meltdown-how-regulatory-failures-landed-us-with-a-multi-billion-pound-bill/

[2] BFY Group Analysis [Link]

[3] BFY Group Analysis - European Gas Storage Levels At Risk Of Dropping to ~5% of Capacity By Late March - https://www.bfygroup.co.uk/post/european-gas-storage-levels-at-risk-of-dropping-to-~5-of-capacity-by-late-march



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